Drive to the Finals Picks - May 31, 2011

Hey everyone, sorry the updating has been less frequent as of late - I'm currently traveling Southeast Asia with my girlfriend, and internet access has been limiting me as of late. I have only managed to catch a few games as a result, and am hoping that this series extends for long enough that I can return home for the final few games. I'm really excited about this series (even though it was at the expense of the Thunder). I feel as though I am one of the few non-haters of the Heat outside of Miami, but would love to see Dirk and Kidd claim a championship of their own. However, I have to go with Miami to win this series. Lebron, Wade and Bosh have knocked the critics, and have proven that they will be a contender over the next six years - and will likely win several championships on the way.

As for the DttF, I just cracked the top 1000 (I'm at 999) at the end of the Conference Finals, but feel poised to make my biggest push in this last round. I have Wade, Lebron, Marion & Dirk for the first four games, and can go to Chandler, Barea and Bibby/Haslem if needed.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Dwayne Wade

• This is the man that will set the tone in Game 1. He is the one player in this series that knows what it takes to win a championship, and I expect to see him demonstrate his talents now that he is back in the Finals for the first time since winning it. LeBron (and Bosh) will play well too, but Wade will lead the charge, showing his teammates what is required of a champion. Maybe 50 PRA is optimistic, but 40 seems very realistic.

Bust - LeBron James

• There is no doubt James will be great tonight - superstars of his caliber always find their ways. It's not that I don't like the King for tonight, I just think he will be a bigger factor when the Heat are one win away from the championship - he has continually demonstrated these playoffs that he is at his best in the clutch.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 24 & 25, 2011

Sorry that I didn't blog yesterday - no internet access at the hotel I was at. Not that my bust matters at this point, but my must was Derrick Rose. As for tonight...


Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Russel Westbrook

• Best player left on the OKC Thunder, and therefore my last chance to use him. It seems like tonight will spell the end of the Thunder

Bust - Kendrick Perkins

• It doesn't matter how thin your DttF's options are, Perkins has never been a great option in OKC. You're lucky to get 15 PRA with him - and that is a rarity. Use Collison or even Maynor if you have to.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 23, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Kevin Durant

• I was really hoping that I wouldn't have to use KD until the Finals, but alas, the time has come. It's hard to admit defeat, but this Game 3 was pivotal, and it looks like my favourite team (next to my hometown Raptors) may have met their match. I'm hoping the Thunder make it to the next round, but would be better off in this contest if Dallas advances (I have Dirk, Marion, Chandler, Barea left). Regardless of how this series plays out, however, KD was no where near his best in Game 3, and is almost a lock to have an outstanding night in Game 4. This will likely be his best game for the rest of the playoffs.

Bust - James Harden

• Despite Harden's emergence as a star player for the Thunder, this game is going to be about superstars. While Harden may hit 20 points again tonight, it will not even come close to matching the production of Durant and Westbrook. Having said that, use him if you've used the Thunder's two stars already.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 22, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Carlos Boozer

• All the players I have left in this series either put up massive PRA numbers, or next to none. I'm choosing the Heat to win this series, and am therefore going with Boozer tonight, and saving Rose for when the Bulls are down in the series. I'm hoping the Heat wrap this up in five games because after Boozer and Rose, I'm going to be stuck with using players like Kyle Korver and Udonis Haslem.

Bust - Chris Bosh

• Bosh proved last game that he is not the key to winning important games. He was great in Game 1, but was sub par in the more important Game 2. Since the series is only going to become more important with each game, I expect Wade and LeBron to keep sharing the brunt of the load.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 21, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Jason Terry

• This series has been a battle of the benches, so it only seems fitting to use one of - if not the best - bench players in the league. The Mavericks bench got the best of the Thunder in Game 1, but the OKC bench came back hard in Game 2. Expect the Dallas bench to do the same tonight, with Jason Terry leading the charge. The result of the game is a coinflip at this point, but don't expect his performance to be. He is now in a face off against James Harden, and will want to prove that he is the better sixth man in the series.

Bust - Serge Ibaka

• Choosing him last game was a big mistake, so this bust is really just me putting him in the dog house. If Westbrook doesn't play a single minute in Game 2, Ibaka must have been far removed from playing in the crunch time. If it weren't for Collison fouling out, he wouldn't have played the fourth at all. I still think he will come out stronger tonight than last game, but with the way Durant and Harden are playing, and with Westbrook looking to redeem himself from his benching last game, there is not much room left for Ibaka to be a huge performer.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 19, 2011

Not much time so I have to make it short...

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Serge Ibaka

• Ibaka played well in Game 1, and there is no reason he shouldn't play as well, if not better, in Game 2. OKC will come out hungry, and the Thunder's dynamic duo is going to rely on their supporting members to pull out a win in Dallas.

Bust - Jason Terry

• Dallas is poised to make the Finals at this point, why use him now? If you must using a shooter from the Mavs, go with Barea while he is hot.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 18, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Chris Bosh

• Two major reasons I am taking Bosh tonight. The first reason being that the Heat's season could end in the next three games, in the (unlikely) event that the Bulls sweep the series. If they do sweep, however, I would want to use one of the Big 3 each of the next three games. If I go with another player, I risk leaving one of Bosh, Wade or James on the board. If the Heat do win tonight, I'd rather have the latter two on hand. Secondly, I am more eager to use up all the all-star caliber players at this point because I do not have to worry about saving players in the Finals. It doesn't hurt that Bosh put up 39 last game either.

Bust - Joakim Noah

• The Heat need to improve drastically in Game 2 - and you know they will. One of their biggest weaknesses in Game 1 was rebounding. They were a -12 in rebounding, and allowed an game-dictating 19 offensive rebounds by the Bulls. You can expect this stat to change significantly tonight. Noah can score, but he is only a viable PRA option because of his rebounding abilities. If the Heat are hustling to gather boards tonight (as they should be), Noah's PRA potential will take a big hit. I expect less than 20 PRA tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 17, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Jason Kidd

• I predict that the Mavs will win Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals because they are a veteran team that is more familiar with deep playoff runs. Whereas the Thunder may come out as nervous and jittery, the Mavericks will likely play a composed game, playing behind the leadership of Jason Kidd. Running the team's offense, I think this Dallas PG will put up one of his better games of the playoffs, as OKC won't be prepared for the increased intensity of the conference finals. Will be content with a 25 PRA performance.

Bust - Russell Westbrook

• Same strategy, different round. The series can go either way at this point so avoid committing to a single team by using their superstars this early in the round. There is no reason to use Westbrook, Durant or Nowitzki tonight because there is only one game per night in the conference finals, and thus no other match-ups to choose from. Go with the likes of Kidd, Terry, Harden and Ibaka at this point.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 15, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Mike Conley

• I'm pot-committed with OKC moving on at this point, and realize my Drive to the Finals run is over with a Memphis win tonight. My only remaining Grizzlies left at this point are Conley (and maybe Mayo) - whereas I have Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka left for the Thunder. I know that Durant is the wise choice for tonight because he is one of the league's top PRA-earners, but I am going to take the gamble tonight because its the only way to come up big in the last two rounds.

Bust - Kevin Durant

• As stated above, I am putting my faith in the Thunder winning this game and think that KD is worth saving at this point. This is a bust of faith, rather than a bust of logic - only time will tell if it pays off.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Conference Finals

So my predictions for the past round did not pan out as well as I thought they would. I only went one for four this past round, with the Sharks being the only team moving on (and just barely!). The silver lining to it all is that my predicted Stanley Cup champions are still in the hunt - and that's really the only correct prediction that matters in the end.

3. Boston Bruins vs. 5. Tampa Bay Lightning

• Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning in 6
• Five: Bolts have been here before

1. Vancouver Canucks vs. 2. San Jose Sharks

• Pick: San Jose Sharks
• Five: Couture continues Smythe worthy performance

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 13, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must – Zach Randolph

• Memphis has been the biggest storyline of the playoffs. In a matter of weeks they have gone from major underdogs to legitimate threats to reach the finals. Leading this charge against San Antonio, and now against OKC, is Zach Randolph. His PRA numbers during these playoffs are only at par with his regular season stats, but he has gained much recognition around the league this postseason for his stellar play and blue-collar work ethic. He has taken the Grizz past the league’s best team and has now led the fight in a tough battle against the Thunder. Sadly for Memphis, it looks as though their entertaining playoff run may end tonight (or Game 7) against a young, eager team in OKC with more playoff experience. I’d be crazy not to use Zbo tonight, as he seems to be a lock for 30+ PRA tonight, in what is the biggest game in franchise history.

Bust – Marc Gasol

• Gasol was great in Game 4, and their best player in Game 5, but he does not come off as a crunch-time player to me. Now that the series has reached the “elimination phase”, the star players move ahead of the role players (see MIA-BOS Game 6: LeBron James(44), Dwayne Wade(49), Chris Bosh(27)). I’m sorry to say Gasol is Memphis’ Bosh – making Conley LeBron?! – and won’t have the numbers that their PF & PG put up tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 12, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Joe Johnson

• At this point, I have Rose, Boozer, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith left, and unfortunately two of those players can go to waste if I make the wrong picks. I have to use an ATL player because they face elimination. An ATL win tonight forces me to use Rose for Game 7 (automatically wasting one of Boozer or Smith), or to roll the dice on a CHI win and use Josh Smith - if I'm right I have both Rose and Boozer left for the next round; if I'm wrong I have wasted them both and have no Hawks left to use. Based on these circumstances, I'd rather the Bulls just win the series tonight (to save Rose and Boozer) - and am choosing Johnson over Smith because he is their franchise and needs to make amends for his poor performance in Game 5. To stay competitive in these playoffs, I am completely dependent on Chicago winning tonight. I never thought I'd say this (and I'll probably never say it again), but GO BULLS!

Bust - Jeff Teague

• Love the guy as a player, and expect him to become an integral member of the team as the starting PG next year. But at this point, he is at the bottom of the pecking order, and shouldn't be the primary PRA beneficiary in an elimination game. Because he has played great these playoffs, I don't doubt a 20+ PRA performance - but I believe the other Hawks will have bigger stat lines and should be picked over Teague for tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 11, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Kevin Garnett

• Maybe the greatest leader in the NBA right now, Garnett is the player other Celtics will look at to get them out of this hole. Garnett will lead by example tonight, and I expect him to dominate the Heat in the paint against a sub-par defender in Bosh. I'm looking at another 30+ PRA performance from Garnett tonight.  There needs to be a balanced stat line across the Celtics' board if they want to win tonight, but I expect Garnett to lead the charge. I'm taking Allen in Game 6.

Bust - Mike Conley

• It's hard to make a bust tonight, but it has to come from the OKC-MEM series, as it is the tighter match-up of the two. I still feel as though the Thunder will come out on top, but I'd rather not risk wasting a player who may not make it to the next round (whereas the Celtics look to be done for the season). I chose Conley tonight because Zbo has been playing great all series and Marc Gasol stepped up big-time last game. It's all a roll of the dice at this point though.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 10, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Jeff Teague

• Since taking over the starting job for this series against the Bulls, Teague has become a viable option. In two ATL wins, he has averaged 18.5 PRA. In two ATL loses, he has averaged 27.5 PRA. The trend is that when he has big games, his team loses. Yeah ... I'm thinking Chicago wins this one too.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• Saving him for an elimination game, when the pressure is really on that contract.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 9, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - James Harden

• The series will come down to the wire, and I am still certain it will come down to a Game 6, if not Game 7 - so I'm going to take a risk by saving Westbrook and Durant for now. If OKC wants to push the series further, however, they'll need their bench to step up - namely Harden. A 20+ point, 25+ PRA performance would provide a great spark of the bench needed to lift them over the Grizzlies. Outside of the Thunder's two superstars, Harden is the best scorer on the team, and must be the X factor in a crucial Game 4.

Bust - Rajon Rondo

• I am writing this a day in advance because I will be out of town, so I expect his 10% selection rate to go down, but am still busting Rondo regardless. Despite playing through a dislocated elbow in Game 3, Rondo's injury has definitely hindered him, and will likely hurt his numbers in Game 4 - if he plays at all. It was very heroic of him to return, but his injury will surely hamper the team at times and hurt his PRA numbers even more. Stay away as a precaution.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 8, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Andrew Bynum

• Bynum has been solid most games these playoffs, and has been the second-best Laker not named Kobe Bryant over this span - Artest has been great as well. But unlike Artest, Bynum has the potential to put up huge PRA numbers on any given night. Even when other players have fallen off (see: Today's bust), Bynum has consistently maintained a high level of play. Fingers crossed for a 30+ PRA effort.

Bust - Pau Gasol

• Gasol has put up decent PRA numbers for an average player, but we are looking at an all-star caliber PF here. He hasn't hit 20 points yet these playoffs, and his poor play these playoffs aren't justified by his average PRA. I expect to see the ball in Kobe's hands during all the key moments in the game, but if the ball is not in Kobe's hands, I don't see it in Gasol's hands either. His game just isn't where it needs to be right now.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 7, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Paul Pierce

• Tough call regarding which remaining Celtic to go with - but I'm going to go with Paul Pierce tonight. For me, the hierarchy of Celtics to go with are: Rondo > Pierce > Garnett > Allen. Having already used Rondo, I simply go down to the next player on the list. Furthermore, I expect an especially strong game from Pierce tonight based on the fact that he'll want to redeem his poor performance in Game 2. Combine this strive for redemption with a desperate Celtics team that is back at home, and you have the perfect recipe for a big PRA performance from the Truth.

 Bust - Ray Allen

• To be honest, I don't see any major busts tonight, but for the sake of the blog I am taking Ray Allen. Garnett and Rondo have favourable match-ups and Pierce will always get looks based on his "franchise" status. This leaves Allen the most vulnerable to take a hit in terms of PRA.W ade is too good of a player and defender to get outplayed by an older, less athletic guard.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 6, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Kobe Bryant

• I don't understand why Kobe isn't universally selected for tonight's game. Let's face it, a Mavs win in Game 3 puts the defending champions all but out of the playoffs. Kobe will put everything on the line tonight, and I mean EVERYTHING. This could be one of the biggest games of his career, as he will do all he can to to prevent the inevitable end of an LAL dynasty. If Kobe is going to crack 50 PRA again these playoffs, it has to be tonight.

Bust - Atlanta Hawks

• Everyone has counted the Hawks out of it now that the Bulls tied the series, but ATL has stolen home court advantage and goes on so long as they can win at home. I can't rule out any Hawk in particular because they have all played great, especially Joe Johnson, but can bust the team as a whole because I believe they are going to push the Bulls into a much longer series than people think.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 4, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Luol Deng

• Not sure which direction either of tonight's series are going to go yet, so I'm going to make another safe pick. Deng put up solid numbers in Game 1 against ATL, and am looking for much the same in Game 2. Much like OKC's win over the Grizz last night, I believe that the winner of this game will go on to win the series. Taking Deng leaves me with Rose & Boozer on the Bulls and Johnson & Smith on the Hawks - so I am left with two solid plays on either team. Play it safe people, don't roll the dice on the star players yet.

Bust - Andrew Bynum

• I wasn't convinced by his performance in Game 1, and am not any more hopeful for him tonight. The Lakers must win this game, but the onus is on Gasol to improve much more than Bynum. Bynum isn't a top scoring option and the Dallas big men have been eating rebounds away from the Lakers' centre, thereby leaving little room for PR accumulation (and he is not getting A anyway).

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 3, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Rajon Rondo

• I don't care about Pierce's reputation as a clutch performer in big games (like the one tonight), Rondo is the Celtics' best player and has been one of the best playoff performers in recent history (just shy of Kobe). Rondo has put up more triple-doubles in his short playoff tenure than most players put up in their entire career. I expect this PG to put Boston on his shoulders tonight, and wouldn't be surprised by a 40+ PRA performance.

Bust - Russell Westbrook

• Okay okay, this is a bust of faith. Durant and Westbrook are my two favourite players and happen to be on the same team that is facing a 1-0 hole. And I promise that if they go down 2-0, I will choose one of them for Game 3 - as defeating as it will feel to pick one of them. My heart says that the Thunder will come back to win the series, but even my brain still thinks that they can win as well. But in the even that I am wrong, I think Durant is the better pick tonight because he is going to be relied on heavily for tonight's series-deciding home game.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 2, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Joakim Noah

• I like Noah tonight for three reasons. 1) The most obvious reason is that Boozer is clearly not 100%, so I expect a bit more out of Noah to compensate for his injury. 2) He is playing against his old college teammate (Al Horford) and I expect him to compete even harder this series, based on this rivalry alone. 3) I don't have much faith in ATL beating the Bulls ... much like the lack of faith I had in them beating the Magic.

Bust - Derrick Rose

• I know, I know - how can you Yay one Bull and Nay another? But it's simple really. I'm going with my old habit of not taking the best player in Game 1. Rose is a huge waste of a pick if the Bulls win the series, and there is plenty of time to use him down the road if the Hawks look poised to take the series.

NBA Playoff Predictions - Western Conference, Round 2

Onto the wild West where were in for a treat. Memphis defeated San Antonio, New Orleans pushed Los Angeles to the brink and Portland saw the rebirth of Brandon Roy in a tough series against Dallas. The Western Conference proved why it was so competitive all year and as we narrow down, match-ups will continue to get more intriguing.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

• Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
• Five: Z-Bo stays hot for Grizz
• Series Score: 4-1

2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3. Dallas Mavericks

• Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
• Five: Dirk struggles against Laker D
• Series Score: 4-2

And the semi-finals for both conferences have been set. The excitement just continues to grow with these playoffs and I'm looking forward to how things will pane out just like you. Before I go, I'd like to apologize for doubting the Lakers with Kobe's injury but the 3-peat is still intact and within our grasp.

Stat Guru

NBA Playoff Predictions - Eastern Conference, Round 2

Surprisingly, the first round had quite a few unexpected upsets. Memphis' defeat over San Antonio, as well as Atlanta playing very tough against Orlando changed the entire shape of the NBA Finals. I have to apologize for my Five on Memphis previously, Z-Bo stepped up incredibly for his team and they are now a team to look out for. Let's continue with the picks for round 2

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

• Pick: Chicago Bulls
• Five: Rose stays strong for Bulls
• Series Score: 4-2

2. Miami Heat vs. 3. Boston Celtics

• Pick: Boston Celtics
• Five: Team effort takes down individuals
• Series Score: 4-3

Both match-ups will be highly contested and fans are in for a great Eastern Conference Semi-Final. Right from the get go, look all 4 teams to assert themselves in the series but resiliency will prove key. Enjoy!

Stat Guru

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 1, 2011

Stat Guru:
Must - Rajon Rondo

• Rondo will be up against no competition on the defensive end as the Heat don't have any stunning point guards. Look for Rondo to carve up the Heat defense in each game with Game 1 as the statement for the series. Rondo has great triple-double potential as one of the few guards who crashes both the offensive and defensive glass. For Boston to win this series, the Big 3 will need their young guard every step of the way.

Bust - Kevin Durant

• In steps Tony Allen, fresh off of their win over the Spurs and looking to take down another Western Conference giant. I may have been wrong about the Spurs-Grizzlies series but one thing is for sure, Kevin Durant will struggle to take over games like he's known to do. Allen will pressure Durant for the full 48 minutes and force him into tough shots, which will give Memphis some hope in this series. Don't choose Durant unless you have great confidence in his game or if the Thunder are down.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Marc Gasol

• When you're entering a new series, it is easy to play a balanced game where everyone gets lots of looks. It isn't until a team is down in the series *cough*Memphis*cough* that the load becomes shouldered by the best player *cough*Zach Randolph*cough* - and thus takes away the stats from the other offensive threats on the team (Gasol, Conley). And in the event that I am wrong - and Memphis takes over the series - the best player is still in tact.

Bust - LeBron James

• A very tight series that is hard to predict at this point in time.  I don't usually like to use superstars in Game 1s if I'm not at least 90% confident in the series outcome, and this series looks 50/50 to me at this point in time.  Additionally, I have a hunch that the Heat will win this series, so am going to leave the Big 3 alone until they are down in the series.