Drive to the Finals Picks - April 26, 2011

The Intuition Statistician
Must - Dwight Howard

• If you haven't picked Howard yet, this is a no brainer. He is averaging one of the highest RPA stat lines in the playoffs so far. If Orlando looses tonight then you may have lost your chance on some big numbers. Not picking Dwight would be a huge gamble, taken probably only by loyal Magic fans.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• For some reason Johnson is a hot pick tonight. This is one of the worst picks you could make unless you are convinced the Magic is going to rally for a comeback. With two teams facing potential elimination tonight, pick the best player from one of the losing teams.

Stat Guru:

Must - Dwight Howard

I didn't get to change this myself but Dwight Howard is the most obvious pick of the night. I know much of you probably waited for this moment to lock him up and with the Magic in huge trouble it is absolutely essential you pick him. Simple as that.

Bust - Kobe Bryant

I never thought I'd say this, but the Lakers actually look like they are in some trouble. Kobe will obviously be a trooper through his injury but his effectiveness will remain in question. I don't doubt they will win tonight but I have a hunch Kobe will look to divert to his team in this one. The Lakers have been very hush about the severe sprain Bryant received at the end of Game 4 which has to leave doubts in the minds of fans. Just in case, save this one until Game 6 if the Lakers do lose this game.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Dwight Howard

• How can you not take Dwight at this point, if you haven't already? Nobody expected theMagic to be in this position against the Hawks, and the way they have played, this looks like it could be their last game of the season. Playing for their playoff lives, this is the perfect game to pick the league's most talented center, who is playing in front of his home crowd. A 30-20 game actually seems probable for tonight.

Bust - Chris Paul

• With the huge win at home in Game 4, Chris Paul and the Hornets are safe for another night. Once again, this pick isn't about CP3 having poor numbers - its about saving your best players until you need them. If you haven't used CP3 at this point, save him until the Lakers win their third game (if they even do?!).

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 25, 2011

The Intuition Statistician
Must - Nene Hilario

• Tonight could very well be the end of Denver's season. Nene has been the only player on his team putting up consistent PRA numbers each night. Because Denver does not have any superstars, any other player chosen tonight would be a gamble.The OKC/Denver match up is the only one potentially ending tonight, so it may be your last chance to use Nene.

Bust - Manu Ginobili

• I know it may seem like a bold statement putting Manu as a bust when his team is down 2-1 playing in Memphis tonight, but be patient. The spurs had the best record in the West for a reason. I do expect big numbers from Manu tonight, but I still believe the Spurs will take this series. With so many options to pick from in the first round of playoffs, I am firm believer in saving superstars until later rounds. However, if the Spurs do lose tonight I will be taking Manu in Game 5 for sure.

Stat Guru

Must - Ty Lawson

After the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Nuggets have lacked one true star to takeover his duties. With Ty Lawson and newly acquired Raymond Felton taking over Chauncey's guard role, Coach Karl has seen both emerge at different times. Now its come down to Game 4 and with Lawson still in the starting lineup, I expect a statement game from him to prove his worth. Guards such as J.R. Smith and Aaron Afflalo still see up and down minutes as Karl goes with the 2 guard system, but Lawson still remains the go to option for him. Lawson is lightening quick and his outside game is very underrated. He could easily put up a 30+ PRA tonight.

Bust - Tony Allen

Allen has had his positive spark put out all series by the Spurs. He has settled back into his role as a defensive stopper rather than one of the scoring options for this team. I expect another hard fought battle between Allen and Ginobili all game with Tony's offensive game being thrown out the window once again. It's disappointing because he does have the ability to be a threat which the Grizzlies need to win this series.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Nene Hilario

• It is not so much that Nene is a "must", but that everyone else is a "bust" tonight. To me, the SAN-MEM and DAL-POR series can still go either way, whereas the OKC-DEN series is just waiting for the ink to dry. Nene is the most consistent player on a team that is facing elimination tonight, and so he seems to be the best option available. Every other player on Denver is a coin flip for a solid PRA, and I am still not ready to gamble again - especially on a Nugget (still bitter about Danilo).

Bust - Dirk Nowitzki

• Until Dallas loses at home, there is no reason to hit the panic button on the Mavs. Dallas doesn't need to win in Portland to move on yet - but they have the best road record in the league in case they have to. As I've said before, Dirk is the only worthwhile look on Dallas, so you are better off saving him until the Mavs face elimination.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 24, 2011

The Intuition Statistician

Must - Amar'e Stoudemire

• With two teams potentially swept and out of the playoffs today, look to pick the best player you have available between either the 76ers or the Knicks. Stoudemire or Carmelo averaged the highest RPA throughout the regular season for both teams. Therefore either one of these guys are a solid pick for tonight.

Bust - Dwight Howard

• Save Howard! Although the Magic are down 2-1, there are two teams that could be eliminated today. If the Hawks win tonight, then Howard is a for sure pick in Game 5. It's too early to count the Magic out. Use any super stars from either the Knicks or 76ers. Howard has been a monster in all three games and it seems like he's not going to slow down. Having him available in further rounds could allow you to make a huge jump in your playoff league.

Stat Guru:

Must - Josh Smith

J Smoove has been flying under the radar for the Hawks in the playoffs. I don't know about you, but I actually forgot about his presence on the court.(not sure how I could) He's been averaging 27+ PRA for the game as a versatile forward. Apart from his defensive ability, Smith can shoot, slash to the basket and take players off the dribble. Atlanta will look to defend home court and I expect Smith to be a huge factor in Game 4.



Bust - Chris Paul

Well would you look at that, my Lakers have finally picked up the slack and have shut down the Hornets primary option. Without David West, the Hornets have a lot of holes in their offense, looking to players like Trevor Ariza and Carl Landry for any sort of scoring outside Paul. Now that the Lakers have keyed in on Paul and with his wrist injury suffered in Game 3, his impact will take a huge hit in this game. Paul is still averaging 20 points and 10 assists for the series, but I expect to see those numbers dwindle tonight.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Chris Paul
The Danilo experiment didn't pan out so I'm going with a safe pick tonight.  If the Hornets stand any chance at staying in this series, they have to win tonight. More importantly, CP3 is going to have to regain the magic he had from Game 1 and put up big numbers across the board.  I considered Jrue for this pick, but don't want to be forced between taking one of Dwight or CP3 if they both face elimination on Tuesday.

Bust - Jrue Holiday

As I stated above, superstars are beginning to face elimination at this point in Round 1, and I would regret not using these fantasy monsters. I do expect the Sixers to come out strong and maybe even steal a game, but I don't expect Jrue to have huge numbers, with the team relying on Iggy and Brand this game. Consider Jrue a bust from here onward.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 23, 2011

Intuition Statistician

Must - Lamarcus Aldridge

• Aldridge is a solid pick for today's match ups. He has been leading the Blazers in RPA and they need a big game out of him tonight as they look to tie the series up. I feel that Dallas will win this series and therefore Portland players should be taken.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• I am not a big fan of Gasol for tonight. Gasol and Zack Randolph rarely share large RPA nights and after Randolph's sub par performance from last game, Randolph should be taking all the RPA's tonight. Furthermore, Gasol has been too inconsistent this entire year. Look for a more consistent player tonight, there are lots available.

Stat Guru

Must - Brandon Roy

I think this pick will stir some of the critics. Roy has gone from once an NBA all-star to a role player for the Blazers. After scoring just 2 points in the first 2 games of the series, Roy scored in double figures in Game 3 and is now turning heads on how great the Blazers could be. I expect Roy to continue his stellar play in the Rose Garden tonight and for the Blazers to lock up the series 2-2.

Bust - Luol Deng

After bringing over Boozer, little was said about the production of Luol Deng as the 2nd scoring option in Chicago. Over the course of the season he has remained consistent but his PRA has been on a decline with the emergence of Rose and the standstill defence the Bulls run. Don't expect much from Luol this game, especially with Indiana looking to protect their home court advantage in Game 4.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Danilo Gallinari

• Here is my first huge gamble of the Drive to the Finals. Danilo has been less than spectacular these playoffs, averaging only 17.5 PRA over the first two games. But for the Nuggets to beat the Thunder, they need Danilo to be driving constantly and shooting lights out. He is most effective when he is getting looks, and I expect him to be getting lots of them tonight. Here's hoping that the Colorado air gets the best of him now that he is back at home.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• Despite his favourable match ups against the Spurs' centres and a surprising 33.5 PRA over the first two games - this is a very small sample size and Marc has been the most consistently inconsistent player during the regular season. This inconsistency combined with a terrible game from Zbo last game (who is now looking for redemption) makes me believe his numbers will drop significantly tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 22, 2011

Stat Guru:
Must - Amar'e Stoudemire

If you're thinking like I am, New York must be getting tired of these close losses to the Celtics. As the Celtics go into the series up 2-0, the Knicks are desperate for a win in MSG. In comes Amar'e Stoudemire on cue. Before the trade, let's not forget Amar'e's 30+ performance for a franchise setting 9 games straight. He still owns this team and Knicks are in search of his aggression around the basket. Dump the ball into STAT and let him go to work. I debated Chris Paul in this position with the series swinging back to New Orleans, but I believe the Lakers will continue to roll.

Bust - Jamal Crawford

After torching the Magic bench in Games 1 and 2, Stan Van Gundy needs to find someone who can stop Crawford. As a veteran coach, I feel this will be the game where he's found that scheme to slow Crawford's wide open looks. Other than scoring, Jamal Crawford doesn't have very much of an upside for the Hawks, making him a bust once his shot is off. For those that took him earlier, great job picking him up but I think this is the end of the road.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Carmelo Anthony

• I missed what may end up being the biggest performance of the playoffs, but another 50+ PRA doesn't seem out of the question here. With Billups out, Amar'e at less than 100% and the Knicks back at home - the stars are aligning for another massive performance. Melo needs to have another incredible performance to carry his team over the Celts, and I fully expect him to pull it off this time.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• Not ready to count the Hawks out yet, so I'll see the results of this game before I pick another player from this series. I don't have much else of a reason for not picking JJ because he will likely put up great numbers, but would rather use stars who are down 2-0 than stars who are tied 1-1. Expect to see a JJ or D12 pick very soon depending on the outcome of this game.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 21, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:

Must - Andre Iguodala

• Down 2-0, the 76ers odds of winning the series is very small. Iggy hasnt performed well in the first two games, but returning to Philadelphia his numbers should increase. He has the potential to get big numbers in each of the RPA categories. It is important to use him tonight because this series could be over in only 4 games. Use Iggy while you can.

Bust - Dwayne Wade

• Stay away from Wade tonight. The Heat will most likely win - if not sweep - this series and is therefore more valuable in later rounds. Look to pick a superstar tonight on a team loosing 2-0 and returning to home-court (See Aldridge, Granger, Iguodala, etc.)

Stat Guru

Must - Elton Brand

Well I'd like to thank my counterparts for taking the most obvious pick of the night in Iggy, forcing me to go with Elton Brand. Elton has quietly had a great season for the 76ers, showing glimpses of why he was once a key player for Chicago. If Iggy fails, which seems to be 50/50 given his play lately, Elton will be relied upon heavily to bang with Bosh in the most. I expect this game to be much closer, giving Brand an easy chance for a double-double.

Bust - Tyler Hansbrough

What a break out season for Mr. UNC, or was it? Fans have been watching and waiting for these type of numbers from Hansbrough since being drafted and it took a coaching change, injuries and a desperate Pacers team for Hansbrough to light a spark under this team. With Boozer now locked into the playoffs, look for Hansbrough to be shut down this game as Chicago heads for a sweep in this series. All salute Mr. Derrick Rose.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Andre Iguodala

• Have to go with TIS here and take Iggy. This pick is a bit of gamble, knowing that the Heat may just roll over the Sixers again tonight, but could also pay off big time if the Sixers bring their A game. Despite the balanced roster, when your team is in a hole, you have to look to your best player. This is the type of situation where you either win with your best, or lose with your best. Iggy is the only player on the team who can carry them past the Heat, so he's the basket I'm putting all my eggs in (no Easter pun intended).

Bust - Dirk Nowitzki

• Let's ignore the fact that the Mavs are up 2-0 in their series. We all know they are the favourites in the DAL-POR series at this point, and that's enough of a reason to stay away from him. But the main reason I'm busting Dirk tonight is the fact that he is the only player on his team who is a lock for 20 PRA on any given night. I can understand picking a player such as Bosh, Pau Gasol or Parker in the first round because their teams have a depth of players who can gather large PRAs in later series, but Dirk is the only player worth a serious look on Dallas. He is a must-save at this point.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 20, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:
Must - Zack Randolph

• Randolph has been a double-double machine for almost his entire career.  He should be getting about 40 minutes tonight and putting up big numbers in the process. If the Grizzlies can keep the game close he will be in tonight's top 5 PRA leaders.

Bust - Chris Paul

• Game 1 was the Chris Paul show. He single handedly picked apart the Lakers defense. Therefore, the Lakers game plan tonight will most likely be to stop Paul. A lot of his scoring came from poor defense and the Lakers inability to guard the pick and role. If I could figure that one out, I'm sure the Lakers coaching staff already has and has made adjustments to contain Paul. Furthermore, don't be surprised if the Lakers come back hard tonight and blow out the Hornets, limiting Paul's minutes. Wait till Paul returns home before picking him.

Stat Guru:
Must - Zack Randolph

• I tried to avoid it but Zach Randolph has to be the obvious choice for tonight's pick one. His will to carry the team through Rudy Gay's injury proves his work night in and night out how badly the Grizzlies need his presense. You know what to expect from Randolph with his capablity to rebound on both ends, inside game as well as an outstanding outside touch for his size.
  

Bust - Pau Gasol

• Although I'm a one of the greatest Laker fans all over town, I'm sure all of you were disgusted with Pau Gasol in Game 1 of this series. As one of the best Power Forwards/Centres in the NBA, Pau showed his tendencies as a soft player and lack of focus throughout the matchup. Unfortunately the temptation to use him in this bounce back game should be held off until down the road. I expect a double-double and solid overall game for Pau but the Lakers should handle the Hornets fairly easily from here on out.
  
  

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Tony Parker

• I had a feeling that the Grizz could pull off a huge upset if they matched up with the Spurs in the first round (not that Hollins would purposely drop the last two games - or would he?). The first game victory proves that the Grizzlies are for real, and that the Spurs are going to have to up their game to win this series. Look for Parker to shoulder the load - especially if Manu is still out - and make drastic improvements from Game 1. 30+ PRA.

Bust - Kobe Bryant

• Don't really feel like I need to justify this pick. Lakers are the best team until proven otherwise, and much like Dwight, I don't feel pressed to use Kobe until the Lakers are in a hole.  Yes, there is a good chance he'll hit 40 PRA tonight, but he is going to hit that mark numerous times these playoffs, and I'd rather save those numbers for later rounds when the talent becomes more sparse.