Drive to the Finals Picks - April 23, 2011

Intuition Statistician

Must - Lamarcus Aldridge

• Aldridge is a solid pick for today's match ups. He has been leading the Blazers in RPA and they need a big game out of him tonight as they look to tie the series up. I feel that Dallas will win this series and therefore Portland players should be taken.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• I am not a big fan of Gasol for tonight. Gasol and Zack Randolph rarely share large RPA nights and after Randolph's sub par performance from last game, Randolph should be taking all the RPA's tonight. Furthermore, Gasol has been too inconsistent this entire year. Look for a more consistent player tonight, there are lots available.

Stat Guru

Must - Brandon Roy

I think this pick will stir some of the critics. Roy has gone from once an NBA all-star to a role player for the Blazers. After scoring just 2 points in the first 2 games of the series, Roy scored in double figures in Game 3 and is now turning heads on how great the Blazers could be. I expect Roy to continue his stellar play in the Rose Garden tonight and for the Blazers to lock up the series 2-2.

Bust - Luol Deng

After bringing over Boozer, little was said about the production of Luol Deng as the 2nd scoring option in Chicago. Over the course of the season he has remained consistent but his PRA has been on a decline with the emergence of Rose and the standstill defence the Bulls run. Don't expect much from Luol this game, especially with Indiana looking to protect their home court advantage in Game 4.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Danilo Gallinari

• Here is my first huge gamble of the Drive to the Finals. Danilo has been less than spectacular these playoffs, averaging only 17.5 PRA over the first two games. But for the Nuggets to beat the Thunder, they need Danilo to be driving constantly and shooting lights out. He is most effective when he is getting looks, and I expect him to be getting lots of them tonight. Here's hoping that the Colorado air gets the best of him now that he is back at home.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• Despite his favourable match ups against the Spurs' centres and a surprising 33.5 PRA over the first two games - this is a very small sample size and Marc has been the most consistently inconsistent player during the regular season. This inconsistency combined with a terrible game from Zbo last game (who is now looking for redemption) makes me believe his numbers will drop significantly tonight.