Drive to the Finals Picks - April 16, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:

Must - Jrue Holiday

• With Andre Iguodala potentially out today, a huge responsibility is on the shoulders of Holiday. Even though this team lacks playoff success, I expect big numbers from Holiday for two reasons. The first is that he wins the PG match up with Bibby and should be able to take advantage of that. The second reason is that I believe no one expects Philly to win and therefore all the pressure is on Miami. Philly surprised everyone with their above 500 record, don't be surprised by Holidays performance today.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• I know everyone is saying Atlanta isn't a play off team, but I think its too early to write them off and start picking their most talented players. If Atlanta has learned anything from losing early in the playoffs, they definitely have the potential and talent to beat Orlando. Moreover, Johnson is a streaky player on team with a losing road record. At least wait until game 3 or 4 when the Hawks are at home.

Stat Guru:
Must - Dirk Nowitzki

• I may be on my own on this one but I think this is the end of the road for the Dallas Mavericks. With Jason Kidd on a steady decline and no real backcourt threat other than Jason Terry, the Mavs will struggle a lot in the first round. Dirk will have to carry a heavy load night in, night out for this team to have any success and look for this afternoon to be no different.

Bust - Danny Granger

• Although it's safe to assume the Indiana Pacers are as good as gone from the playoffs, Danny Granger remains a threat to go off with his outside shooting and ability to get to the basket. Having said that, we've all seen Granger go through ups and downs all season long, and has been cold through the latter half of the season, not playing up to what Vogel needed from him. Look for him to jack up shots and find his touch early, while likely dropping off miserably by the end. Save this pick for game 3 or 4 when they are back in the Conseco Fieldhouse.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Al Horford

• At first I was going to go with the majority and take Granger, seeing as though they are the most likely to get swept – but figured I’d save him for the quiet double-header on Monday. I’m taking Horford on opening night for two reasons: 1) the Hawks are consistently dreadful playoff performers, and 2) he is the most consistent player on the roster. If and when the Hawks find themselves in a hole in the playoffs, they will look to Joe Johnson to shoulder the load - not Horford - so I'd rather use the big man before this team gets desperate. Also, I don't mind using an ATL pick early on because even if they make it past the first round, I still two viable options left in JJ and J Smoove.

Bust - LaMarcus Aldridge

• I am completely shocked by the number of people who are going with LA on opening night. The Blazers are the only lower seeded team in the West who look to have a legitimate shot at making it out of the first round, and this is the one matchup that looks good to go six or seven games. He is a great pick towards the end of the first round when there will only be one or two games per night, but this pick is much too early.

Just a reminder for everyone to join out Pick1 League titled 'All Out Fantasy Sports'. Find the league @ http://fantasy.nba.com/drive/entries/8406/picks/mine