Drive to the Finals Picks - April 19, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:
Must - Carmelo Anthony
Look for a big rebound from Carmelo tonight after his sub par performance in game 1. Carmelo is a competitor with something to prove. He left a playoff contending team in hopes of joining a championship team. If Carmelo had a better performance in Game 1 the Knicks probably would have stolen a win in Boston. There is no way he will not show up two games in a row. Tonight will be a statement game for Carmelo where he looks to tie the series up.





Bust - Jason Kidd
After lighting up the Blazers in Game 1 with six treys, I think there might be some defense played on Kidd tonight in Game 2. Kidd can not create his own shot enough to put up a large points consistently. Therefore, any defense played by Andre Miller should significantly limit Kidd's scoring. I doubt Kidd's 24 point performance is a hot streak that will carry into Game 2. Stay away from Kidd tonight and go with a more reliable option.

Stat Guru


Must - Al Horford
Well we all make mistakes and it looks like I may have made one myself. The Atlanta Hawks are proving they deserve to be back in this playoff rematch against the Orlando Magic. After being torched by Dwight Howard in Game 1, look for Al to reassert himself in this series as one of the premier yet underrated big men in the league. While battling foul trouble maybe tough for Horford, his all around game is one that should not be overlooked.






Bust - Kevin Garnett
Amongst the Big 4 (if I may add Rajon Rondo), Kevin Garnett often gets lost in the mix due to his stats that are often unaccounted for. Don't get me wrong, his presense is always felt on the court but as an overall threat to defenses, KG relies more on his outside game and defensive ability rather than an offensive threat. With STAT on the otherside, look for KG to throw offense away and show why he earned Defensive Player of the Year.



Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - LaMarcus Aldridge
I'm not sold on Dallas winning the series yet, but fear this will be my last opportunity to use LA if Dallas gets the victory again tonight. Now that he is the go-to guy for the Blazers, he puts up great numbers and he puts them up consistently. I would be happy with a similar effort from Game 1, but know that this pick may come back to bite me if the series does go the distance.

Bust - Dwight Howard
I know that there is now a sense of urgency to pick D12 after the Hawks pulled off an upset in Orlando's building - but it is a little too soon to count the Magic out. I always say that the series doesn't begin until the second game, and tonight's match up is the perfect example. A Magic win puts them back in the series, and gives them the momentum going forward. A lose may end up being their demise. Either way, Howard is a PRA monster, and I'm not using him until the Magic's backs are against the wall.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 18, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:
Must - Danny Granger

• As the Pacers look to tie up the series up at one win they will need to turn to their PRA leader, Granger, to bring home a win. The Pacers must realize that a second loss tonight would make a comeback very difficult against the Easts top seed. Granger will have to go to work tonight to keep any hopes of an upset alive.

Bust - Lebron James

• I thought that picking James this early would be the most obvious bust, but on the NBA's pick one, he's a "hot pick". Come on guys! Tonight's games feature the two most lopsided match ups. If you pick superstars from Miami or Chicago this early you will most likely regret it when they advance in the playoffs. You will be left picking Juwan Howard and Brain Scalabrine while others are still using Lebron and Rose.

Stat Guru:
Must - Jrue Holiday
As Game 1 proved, Jrue will have to play a huge role if Philly wants to have ay chance against the highly touted Heat. Watch for the team to look to jump out on the Big 3 in an attept to make a statement for Games 3 and 4 at home. Jrue has great double-double potential in any game and crashes the boards well for a PG - similar to Westbrook and Rondo. Without this kid, the 76ers might as well crash and burn before trying to lift off (Sorry Iggy).

Bust - Carlos Boozer
Upon the return of Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer has been a lack luster PF at best. His rebound game continues to be eaten away by the likes of Noah and Deng while the emergence of Derrick Rose creates a standstill offense for the Bulls. Similar to last game, I expect no more than an 18 PRA from Boozer who will not need to show any sort of leadership until rounds 2 or 3. Save this one.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Danny Granger

• It had to hurt taking a lead against the Bulls that late in the game, only to lose it toward the very end. I'm also having a difficult time believing the Pacers are going to come as close to winning as they did in Game 1. Nonetheless, I expect Granger to improve on his performance from Saturday with an increase in PRA (mostly in P). I expect Collison and Hansbrough to take a step back in their performances and for Granger to pick up that slack. I'm banking on a 35+ PRA performance from Granger, as he will be the only player keeping the Pacers in it.

Bust - Philadelphia 76ers

• There are five different players who can go for 30+ PRA on any given night (yes, even you Lou), which makes the Sixers a decent look for tonight. I looked at four of them closely (sorry, not this time Lou), but couldn't decide which one would give me the best results. Brand and Jrue have favourable match-ups. Thaddeus faces a weak bench. Iggy should come strong tonight after a subpar showing on Saturday. Unfortunately, I couldn't justify any of them as a pick tonight because as one excels, another is hindered. I am sure I will have to pick a Sixer at some point in this series, but I don't need to take the gamble with Granger on the board still.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 17, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:
Must - Carl Landry

• Landry has flown under the radar this season with the Hornets. He has always been capable of putting up big scoring numbers, but has not been given the minutes. Now that he's replaced the teams leading scorer, David West, a lot is required of him. In the past, Landry has had success against the Lakers bigs. Without a doubt, the Hornets will need big numbers from Landry if they want to make this series competitive. The chance of the Hornets passing the Lakers is very small, so it's time to use up the Hornets talent.

Bust - Kevin Durant

• Yes Durant might put up huge numbers tonight and move you into first place in your pick one league, but remember that there are potentially four rounds in the playoffs for OKC this year. Don't waist super stars that have the potential to go far in the first round. Simple.

Stat Guru:
Must - Carmelo Anthony

• If there is anytime where the Knicks need to make a name for themselves, then now is the time to do it. As the New York Big 3 have not had much time to gel as a unit, the Knicks have seen their shares of good times and bad times from all angles. Look for Carmelo to aim to please New York fans with a solid outing in this one while stunning the C's. Boston's choice to rest their starters down the stretch will fall right into the hands of this hungry Knicks team.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• The rise and fall of Marc Gasol from the 2009-2010 season to the present has hurt the Memphis team. As once a target for teams to hone in on, Marc has ceased to have the season Hollins had hoped for. From a likely double-double candidate each night, Gasol's presense is one we are still looking for to be felt. San Antonio's defense will also pose a threat to the Grizzlies' big men as Tony Allen will likely be leaned upon for his new found scoring load.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Amar'e Stoudemire

• I have high hopes that the Knicks are going to come up from under the Celts and surprise the masses with a huge win in Game 1. Points in the paint should come easy as the Celtics learn to cope without Perkins in the playoffs. It’s going to take Boston a couple of games before they find a way to shutdown STAT’s big offensive production, so the earlier you take Amar'e. Boston will win the series, but I think NY will be a goldmine for PRA on this night. I considered Melo here as well, but think I am better off saving him for a night at the MSG, where he can show off in front of his hometown.

Bust - Ray Allen

• Yes, the obvious reason for me busting RayRay was stated a few lines ago when I picked Boston to win the series. But what bothers me more about this pick is the fact that he only averaged 22.6 PRA during the season. Many fantasy studs go unused in the first round due to picks like this. If you're unsure which way the BOS/NY series will go, avoid the series for now (Zbo and CP3 are playing tonight). If you're certain the Knicks make the upset, pick one of the other three Celts (KG, PP, RR) who have more potential for big PRA games. This is a low risk, low reward pick that may be regretted later if the Celtics make a long playoff push.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 16, 2011

The Intuition Statistician:

Must - Jrue Holiday

• With Andre Iguodala potentially out today, a huge responsibility is on the shoulders of Holiday. Even though this team lacks playoff success, I expect big numbers from Holiday for two reasons. The first is that he wins the PG match up with Bibby and should be able to take advantage of that. The second reason is that I believe no one expects Philly to win and therefore all the pressure is on Miami. Philly surprised everyone with their above 500 record, don't be surprised by Holidays performance today.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• I know everyone is saying Atlanta isn't a play off team, but I think its too early to write them off and start picking their most talented players. If Atlanta has learned anything from losing early in the playoffs, they definitely have the potential and talent to beat Orlando. Moreover, Johnson is a streaky player on team with a losing road record. At least wait until game 3 or 4 when the Hawks are at home.

Stat Guru:
Must - Dirk Nowitzki

• I may be on my own on this one but I think this is the end of the road for the Dallas Mavericks. With Jason Kidd on a steady decline and no real backcourt threat other than Jason Terry, the Mavs will struggle a lot in the first round. Dirk will have to carry a heavy load night in, night out for this team to have any success and look for this afternoon to be no different.

Bust - Danny Granger

• Although it's safe to assume the Indiana Pacers are as good as gone from the playoffs, Danny Granger remains a threat to go off with his outside shooting and ability to get to the basket. Having said that, we've all seen Granger go through ups and downs all season long, and has been cold through the latter half of the season, not playing up to what Vogel needed from him. Look for him to jack up shots and find his touch early, while likely dropping off miserably by the end. Save this pick for game 3 or 4 when they are back in the Conseco Fieldhouse.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Al Horford

• At first I was going to go with the majority and take Granger, seeing as though they are the most likely to get swept – but figured I’d save him for the quiet double-header on Monday. I’m taking Horford on opening night for two reasons: 1) the Hawks are consistently dreadful playoff performers, and 2) he is the most consistent player on the roster. If and when the Hawks find themselves in a hole in the playoffs, they will look to Joe Johnson to shoulder the load - not Horford - so I'd rather use the big man before this team gets desperate. Also, I don't mind using an ATL pick early on because even if they make it past the first round, I still two viable options left in JJ and J Smoove.

Bust - LaMarcus Aldridge

• I am completely shocked by the number of people who are going with LA on opening night. The Blazers are the only lower seeded team in the West who look to have a legitimate shot at making it out of the first round, and this is the one matchup that looks good to go six or seven games. He is a great pick towards the end of the first round when there will only be one or two games per night, but this pick is much too early.

Just a reminder for everyone to join out Pick1 League titled 'All Out Fantasy Sports'. Find the league @ http://fantasy.nba.com/drive/entries/8406/picks/mine

NBA Playoff Predictions - Western Conference, Round 1

Apart from their Eastern counterparts, the Western Conference was as wild as they come. As expected year in and year out, the battle from 1 through 8 (minus those Veteran Spurs) remained exciting all season. Before I go any further, I'd like my Laker bias to be expressed right now and share the fact that "WE" will earn Phil Jackson yet another championship this season. Now that I've cleared that up, 5 words, 1 pick, 4 winners, 4 losers. Let's begin!

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

• Pick: San Antonio Spurs
• Five: How did Memphis get here?

2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7. New Orleans Hornets

• Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
• Five: First step to the 3Peat

3. Dallas Mavericks vs. 6. Portland Trail Blazers

• Pick: Portland Trail Blazers
• Five: Aldridge will not be Snubbed

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5. Denver Nuggets

• Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Five: Surging young talent shocks playoffs

The brackets are set and there are Stat's picks for the first round. Like any NBA fan, the excitement continues to build as we are 2 days away from tip-off. From day 1, there has been much talk about the highly touted Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers, Lebron vs. Kobe final. I know my Lakers will be in there but which bandwagon will be jumped on when Miami is ousted (coughDerrickRosecough). Enjoy, the playoffs are upon us!

Stat Guru

What the Puck?! April 14, 2011

Hockey is filled with thousands of moments. Moments that will never be forgotten. Moments that have shaped and changed the game forever. Moments that have made us jump out of our chairs and moments that have made us sink into our seats. Moments of glorious goals, jaw-dropping saves and nail-biting overtimes. Moments where heroes become villains, rookies become veterans and regular athletes become legends. Moments of pleasure, pain, joy, disappointment, redemption and awe. Moments of greatness. Now take all those historic moments ... and just throw them out the window, all of them. They are not needed here. Because let's be honest, despite all of its greatness, hockey still has its less glorious moments leave you so inexplicably dumbfounded that you're left thinking "wait a moment? what just happened here." Here is the "What the Puck?!" moment of the night... http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlg=20102011,3,141&event=PIT550 The epitome of poor work ethic. In last night's game against the Lightning, Kovalev shows that if you put just the right amount of lazy into your job, you can walk away as the hero at the end of the day. After being tripped up just to the side of the net (in what should have been a penalty), Kovalev decides that he has been wronged by the refs and takes a prolonged rest - during his shift - to think about how he has been so wronged. The play continues on while he waits for his delayed call. But this is the playoffs Kov - you think Sid would have given up after that? Nonetheless, Kovalev's lack of passion for the game pays off big time, as he becomes so far removed from the play that when he gets up, its just in time to leave him wide open for an easy one-timer. 1 - 0 Pens. Usually Kovalev's lack of dedication to the game hurts his team, but this time it actually benefits them - how disappointing...

NBA Pick1 - Drive to the Finals

Hey everyone! Just wanted to pass the invite onto everyone to join the Drive to the Finals Pick 1 Challenge hosted by the official NBA website. We have created a public league titled "All Out Fantasy Sports" and would like to invite you all to come compete against our experts to see who the true champion of Pick 1 is. http://fantasy.nba.com/drive/entries/8406/picks/mine Also, we will be running a daily entry called "Musts & Busts" during the Pick 1 Challenge, where each of our experts will post their must-have pick of the night, as well as their choice for the most overrated pick of the night. Feel free to respond with your Musts & Busts as well!

See you all there, The AOF Team