Drive to the Finals Picks - June 9, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - LeBron James

• Change of plans. I know I said I'd take Barea and save James until the Heat's "inevitable" third win. I still hold that the Heat will get that third win, but the dynamics of this series have changed suddenly - especially for James. My thinking process was that - even if the Heat lost Game 4, LeBron James would have poured in his typical 38 PRA (give or take) and that adversity would be directed toward the entire team. Not the case. James had a meager 24 PRA and all the adversity is now on him. Now Game 5 is the most important of his career - and I'm going to assume he doesn't disappoint. 45+ PRA.

Bust - Mario Chalmers

• There is just no PRA room to pick a player on the Heat who are not named James, Wade or Bosh.

Drive to the Finals Picks - June 7, 2011

Fantasy Freshy Wes:

Must - Tyson Chandler

• I am still waiting to save LeBron after the Heat attain that inevitable third win. Until then, I'm just going with the best players on the board. Tonight it is Chandler. With a Mavs win, it is Barea in Game 5.

Bust - Jason Kidd

• Despite being a great leader for the other guards on this team, Kidd's PRA numbers have been less than stellar. Kidd barely cracks 20 PRA on the average night, whereas the back-up guards, Terry and Barea, have the potential to hit 20 points alone.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 31, 2011

Hey everyone, sorry the updating has been less frequent as of late - I'm currently traveling Southeast Asia with my girlfriend, and internet access has been limiting me as of late. I have only managed to catch a few games as a result, and am hoping that this series extends for long enough that I can return home for the final few games. I'm really excited about this series (even though it was at the expense of the Thunder). I feel as though I am one of the few non-haters of the Heat outside of Miami, but would love to see Dirk and Kidd claim a championship of their own. However, I have to go with Miami to win this series. Lebron, Wade and Bosh have knocked the critics, and have proven that they will be a contender over the next six years - and will likely win several championships on the way.

As for the DttF, I just cracked the top 1000 (I'm at 999) at the end of the Conference Finals, but feel poised to make my biggest push in this last round. I have Wade, Lebron, Marion & Dirk for the first four games, and can go to Chandler, Barea and Bibby/Haslem if needed.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Dwayne Wade

• This is the man that will set the tone in Game 1. He is the one player in this series that knows what it takes to win a championship, and I expect to see him demonstrate his talents now that he is back in the Finals for the first time since winning it. LeBron (and Bosh) will play well too, but Wade will lead the charge, showing his teammates what is required of a champion. Maybe 50 PRA is optimistic, but 40 seems very realistic.

Bust - LeBron James

• There is no doubt James will be great tonight - superstars of his caliber always find their ways. It's not that I don't like the King for tonight, I just think he will be a bigger factor when the Heat are one win away from the championship - he has continually demonstrated these playoffs that he is at his best in the clutch.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 24 & 25, 2011

Sorry that I didn't blog yesterday - no internet access at the hotel I was at. Not that my bust matters at this point, but my must was Derrick Rose. As for tonight...


Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Russel Westbrook

• Best player left on the OKC Thunder, and therefore my last chance to use him. It seems like tonight will spell the end of the Thunder

Bust - Kendrick Perkins

• It doesn't matter how thin your DttF's options are, Perkins has never been a great option in OKC. You're lucky to get 15 PRA with him - and that is a rarity. Use Collison or even Maynor if you have to.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 23, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Kevin Durant

• I was really hoping that I wouldn't have to use KD until the Finals, but alas, the time has come. It's hard to admit defeat, but this Game 3 was pivotal, and it looks like my favourite team (next to my hometown Raptors) may have met their match. I'm hoping the Thunder make it to the next round, but would be better off in this contest if Dallas advances (I have Dirk, Marion, Chandler, Barea left). Regardless of how this series plays out, however, KD was no where near his best in Game 3, and is almost a lock to have an outstanding night in Game 4. This will likely be his best game for the rest of the playoffs.

Bust - James Harden

• Despite Harden's emergence as a star player for the Thunder, this game is going to be about superstars. While Harden may hit 20 points again tonight, it will not even come close to matching the production of Durant and Westbrook. Having said that, use him if you've used the Thunder's two stars already.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 22, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Carlos Boozer

• All the players I have left in this series either put up massive PRA numbers, or next to none. I'm choosing the Heat to win this series, and am therefore going with Boozer tonight, and saving Rose for when the Bulls are down in the series. I'm hoping the Heat wrap this up in five games because after Boozer and Rose, I'm going to be stuck with using players like Kyle Korver and Udonis Haslem.

Bust - Chris Bosh

• Bosh proved last game that he is not the key to winning important games. He was great in Game 1, but was sub par in the more important Game 2. Since the series is only going to become more important with each game, I expect Wade and LeBron to keep sharing the brunt of the load.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 21, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Jason Terry

• This series has been a battle of the benches, so it only seems fitting to use one of - if not the best - bench players in the league. The Mavericks bench got the best of the Thunder in Game 1, but the OKC bench came back hard in Game 2. Expect the Dallas bench to do the same tonight, with Jason Terry leading the charge. The result of the game is a coinflip at this point, but don't expect his performance to be. He is now in a face off against James Harden, and will want to prove that he is the better sixth man in the series.

Bust - Serge Ibaka

• Choosing him last game was a big mistake, so this bust is really just me putting him in the dog house. If Westbrook doesn't play a single minute in Game 2, Ibaka must have been far removed from playing in the crunch time. If it weren't for Collison fouling out, he wouldn't have played the fourth at all. I still think he will come out stronger tonight than last game, but with the way Durant and Harden are playing, and with Westbrook looking to redeem himself from his benching last game, there is not much room left for Ibaka to be a huge performer.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 19, 2011

Not much time so I have to make it short...

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Serge Ibaka

• Ibaka played well in Game 1, and there is no reason he shouldn't play as well, if not better, in Game 2. OKC will come out hungry, and the Thunder's dynamic duo is going to rely on their supporting members to pull out a win in Dallas.

Bust - Jason Terry

• Dallas is poised to make the Finals at this point, why use him now? If you must using a shooter from the Mavs, go with Barea while he is hot.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 18, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Chris Bosh

• Two major reasons I am taking Bosh tonight. The first reason being that the Heat's season could end in the next three games, in the (unlikely) event that the Bulls sweep the series. If they do sweep, however, I would want to use one of the Big 3 each of the next three games. If I go with another player, I risk leaving one of Bosh, Wade or James on the board. If the Heat do win tonight, I'd rather have the latter two on hand. Secondly, I am more eager to use up all the all-star caliber players at this point because I do not have to worry about saving players in the Finals. It doesn't hurt that Bosh put up 39 last game either.

Bust - Joakim Noah

• The Heat need to improve drastically in Game 2 - and you know they will. One of their biggest weaknesses in Game 1 was rebounding. They were a -12 in rebounding, and allowed an game-dictating 19 offensive rebounds by the Bulls. You can expect this stat to change significantly tonight. Noah can score, but he is only a viable PRA option because of his rebounding abilities. If the Heat are hustling to gather boards tonight (as they should be), Noah's PRA potential will take a big hit. I expect less than 20 PRA tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 17, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Jason Kidd

• I predict that the Mavs will win Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals because they are a veteran team that is more familiar with deep playoff runs. Whereas the Thunder may come out as nervous and jittery, the Mavericks will likely play a composed game, playing behind the leadership of Jason Kidd. Running the team's offense, I think this Dallas PG will put up one of his better games of the playoffs, as OKC won't be prepared for the increased intensity of the conference finals. Will be content with a 25 PRA performance.

Bust - Russell Westbrook

• Same strategy, different round. The series can go either way at this point so avoid committing to a single team by using their superstars this early in the round. There is no reason to use Westbrook, Durant or Nowitzki tonight because there is only one game per night in the conference finals, and thus no other match-ups to choose from. Go with the likes of Kidd, Terry, Harden and Ibaka at this point.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 15, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Mike Conley

• I'm pot-committed with OKC moving on at this point, and realize my Drive to the Finals run is over with a Memphis win tonight. My only remaining Grizzlies left at this point are Conley (and maybe Mayo) - whereas I have Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka left for the Thunder. I know that Durant is the wise choice for tonight because he is one of the league's top PRA-earners, but I am going to take the gamble tonight because its the only way to come up big in the last two rounds.

Bust - Kevin Durant

• As stated above, I am putting my faith in the Thunder winning this game and think that KD is worth saving at this point. This is a bust of faith, rather than a bust of logic - only time will tell if it pays off.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Conference Finals

So my predictions for the past round did not pan out as well as I thought they would. I only went one for four this past round, with the Sharks being the only team moving on (and just barely!). The silver lining to it all is that my predicted Stanley Cup champions are still in the hunt - and that's really the only correct prediction that matters in the end.

3. Boston Bruins vs. 5. Tampa Bay Lightning

• Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning in 6
• Five: Bolts have been here before

1. Vancouver Canucks vs. 2. San Jose Sharks

• Pick: San Jose Sharks
• Five: Couture continues Smythe worthy performance

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 13, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must – Zach Randolph

• Memphis has been the biggest storyline of the playoffs. In a matter of weeks they have gone from major underdogs to legitimate threats to reach the finals. Leading this charge against San Antonio, and now against OKC, is Zach Randolph. His PRA numbers during these playoffs are only at par with his regular season stats, but he has gained much recognition around the league this postseason for his stellar play and blue-collar work ethic. He has taken the Grizz past the league’s best team and has now led the fight in a tough battle against the Thunder. Sadly for Memphis, it looks as though their entertaining playoff run may end tonight (or Game 7) against a young, eager team in OKC with more playoff experience. I’d be crazy not to use Zbo tonight, as he seems to be a lock for 30+ PRA tonight, in what is the biggest game in franchise history.

Bust – Marc Gasol

• Gasol was great in Game 4, and their best player in Game 5, but he does not come off as a crunch-time player to me. Now that the series has reached the “elimination phase”, the star players move ahead of the role players (see MIA-BOS Game 6: LeBron James(44), Dwayne Wade(49), Chris Bosh(27)). I’m sorry to say Gasol is Memphis’ Bosh – making Conley LeBron?! – and won’t have the numbers that their PF & PG put up tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 12, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Joe Johnson

• At this point, I have Rose, Boozer, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith left, and unfortunately two of those players can go to waste if I make the wrong picks. I have to use an ATL player because they face elimination. An ATL win tonight forces me to use Rose for Game 7 (automatically wasting one of Boozer or Smith), or to roll the dice on a CHI win and use Josh Smith - if I'm right I have both Rose and Boozer left for the next round; if I'm wrong I have wasted them both and have no Hawks left to use. Based on these circumstances, I'd rather the Bulls just win the series tonight (to save Rose and Boozer) - and am choosing Johnson over Smith because he is their franchise and needs to make amends for his poor performance in Game 5. To stay competitive in these playoffs, I am completely dependent on Chicago winning tonight. I never thought I'd say this (and I'll probably never say it again), but GO BULLS!

Bust - Jeff Teague

• Love the guy as a player, and expect him to become an integral member of the team as the starting PG next year. But at this point, he is at the bottom of the pecking order, and shouldn't be the primary PRA beneficiary in an elimination game. Because he has played great these playoffs, I don't doubt a 20+ PRA performance - but I believe the other Hawks will have bigger stat lines and should be picked over Teague for tonight.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 11, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Kevin Garnett

• Maybe the greatest leader in the NBA right now, Garnett is the player other Celtics will look at to get them out of this hole. Garnett will lead by example tonight, and I expect him to dominate the Heat in the paint against a sub-par defender in Bosh. I'm looking at another 30+ PRA performance from Garnett tonight.  There needs to be a balanced stat line across the Celtics' board if they want to win tonight, but I expect Garnett to lead the charge. I'm taking Allen in Game 6.

Bust - Mike Conley

• It's hard to make a bust tonight, but it has to come from the OKC-MEM series, as it is the tighter match-up of the two. I still feel as though the Thunder will come out on top, but I'd rather not risk wasting a player who may not make it to the next round (whereas the Celtics look to be done for the season). I chose Conley tonight because Zbo has been playing great all series and Marc Gasol stepped up big-time last game. It's all a roll of the dice at this point though.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 10, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Jeff Teague

• Since taking over the starting job for this series against the Bulls, Teague has become a viable option. In two ATL wins, he has averaged 18.5 PRA. In two ATL loses, he has averaged 27.5 PRA. The trend is that when he has big games, his team loses. Yeah ... I'm thinking Chicago wins this one too.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• Saving him for an elimination game, when the pressure is really on that contract.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 9, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - James Harden

• The series will come down to the wire, and I am still certain it will come down to a Game 6, if not Game 7 - so I'm going to take a risk by saving Westbrook and Durant for now. If OKC wants to push the series further, however, they'll need their bench to step up - namely Harden. A 20+ point, 25+ PRA performance would provide a great spark of the bench needed to lift them over the Grizzlies. Outside of the Thunder's two superstars, Harden is the best scorer on the team, and must be the X factor in a crucial Game 4.

Bust - Rajon Rondo

• I am writing this a day in advance because I will be out of town, so I expect his 10% selection rate to go down, but am still busting Rondo regardless. Despite playing through a dislocated elbow in Game 3, Rondo's injury has definitely hindered him, and will likely hurt his numbers in Game 4 - if he plays at all. It was very heroic of him to return, but his injury will surely hamper the team at times and hurt his PRA numbers even more. Stay away as a precaution.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 8, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Andrew Bynum

• Bynum has been solid most games these playoffs, and has been the second-best Laker not named Kobe Bryant over this span - Artest has been great as well. But unlike Artest, Bynum has the potential to put up huge PRA numbers on any given night. Even when other players have fallen off (see: Today's bust), Bynum has consistently maintained a high level of play. Fingers crossed for a 30+ PRA effort.

Bust - Pau Gasol

• Gasol has put up decent PRA numbers for an average player, but we are looking at an all-star caliber PF here. He hasn't hit 20 points yet these playoffs, and his poor play these playoffs aren't justified by his average PRA. I expect to see the ball in Kobe's hands during all the key moments in the game, but if the ball is not in Kobe's hands, I don't see it in Gasol's hands either. His game just isn't where it needs to be right now.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 7, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Paul Pierce

• Tough call regarding which remaining Celtic to go with - but I'm going to go with Paul Pierce tonight. For me, the hierarchy of Celtics to go with are: Rondo > Pierce > Garnett > Allen. Having already used Rondo, I simply go down to the next player on the list. Furthermore, I expect an especially strong game from Pierce tonight based on the fact that he'll want to redeem his poor performance in Game 2. Combine this strive for redemption with a desperate Celtics team that is back at home, and you have the perfect recipe for a big PRA performance from the Truth.

 Bust - Ray Allen

• To be honest, I don't see any major busts tonight, but for the sake of the blog I am taking Ray Allen. Garnett and Rondo have favourable match-ups and Pierce will always get looks based on his "franchise" status. This leaves Allen the most vulnerable to take a hit in terms of PRA.W ade is too good of a player and defender to get outplayed by an older, less athletic guard.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 6, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Kobe Bryant

• I don't understand why Kobe isn't universally selected for tonight's game. Let's face it, a Mavs win in Game 3 puts the defending champions all but out of the playoffs. Kobe will put everything on the line tonight, and I mean EVERYTHING. This could be one of the biggest games of his career, as he will do all he can to to prevent the inevitable end of an LAL dynasty. If Kobe is going to crack 50 PRA again these playoffs, it has to be tonight.

Bust - Atlanta Hawks

• Everyone has counted the Hawks out of it now that the Bulls tied the series, but ATL has stolen home court advantage and goes on so long as they can win at home. I can't rule out any Hawk in particular because they have all played great, especially Joe Johnson, but can bust the team as a whole because I believe they are going to push the Bulls into a much longer series than people think.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 4, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Luol Deng

• Not sure which direction either of tonight's series are going to go yet, so I'm going to make another safe pick. Deng put up solid numbers in Game 1 against ATL, and am looking for much the same in Game 2. Much like OKC's win over the Grizz last night, I believe that the winner of this game will go on to win the series. Taking Deng leaves me with Rose & Boozer on the Bulls and Johnson & Smith on the Hawks - so I am left with two solid plays on either team. Play it safe people, don't roll the dice on the star players yet.

Bust - Andrew Bynum

• I wasn't convinced by his performance in Game 1, and am not any more hopeful for him tonight. The Lakers must win this game, but the onus is on Gasol to improve much more than Bynum. Bynum isn't a top scoring option and the Dallas big men have been eating rebounds away from the Lakers' centre, thereby leaving little room for PR accumulation (and he is not getting A anyway).

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 3, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Rajon Rondo

• I don't care about Pierce's reputation as a clutch performer in big games (like the one tonight), Rondo is the Celtics' best player and has been one of the best playoff performers in recent history (just shy of Kobe). Rondo has put up more triple-doubles in his short playoff tenure than most players put up in their entire career. I expect this PG to put Boston on his shoulders tonight, and wouldn't be surprised by a 40+ PRA performance.

Bust - Russell Westbrook

• Okay okay, this is a bust of faith. Durant and Westbrook are my two favourite players and happen to be on the same team that is facing a 1-0 hole. And I promise that if they go down 2-0, I will choose one of them for Game 3 - as defeating as it will feel to pick one of them. My heart says that the Thunder will come back to win the series, but even my brain still thinks that they can win as well. But in the even that I am wrong, I think Durant is the better pick tonight because he is going to be relied on heavily for tonight's series-deciding home game.

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 2, 2011

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Joakim Noah

• I like Noah tonight for three reasons. 1) The most obvious reason is that Boozer is clearly not 100%, so I expect a bit more out of Noah to compensate for his injury. 2) He is playing against his old college teammate (Al Horford) and I expect him to compete even harder this series, based on this rivalry alone. 3) I don't have much faith in ATL beating the Bulls ... much like the lack of faith I had in them beating the Magic.

Bust - Derrick Rose

• I know, I know - how can you Yay one Bull and Nay another? But it's simple really. I'm going with my old habit of not taking the best player in Game 1. Rose is a huge waste of a pick if the Bulls win the series, and there is plenty of time to use him down the road if the Hawks look poised to take the series.

NBA Playoff Predictions - Western Conference, Round 2

Onto the wild West where were in for a treat. Memphis defeated San Antonio, New Orleans pushed Los Angeles to the brink and Portland saw the rebirth of Brandon Roy in a tough series against Dallas. The Western Conference proved why it was so competitive all year and as we narrow down, match-ups will continue to get more intriguing.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

• Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
• Five: Z-Bo stays hot for Grizz
• Series Score: 4-1

2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3. Dallas Mavericks

• Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
• Five: Dirk struggles against Laker D
• Series Score: 4-2

And the semi-finals for both conferences have been set. The excitement just continues to grow with these playoffs and I'm looking forward to how things will pane out just like you. Before I go, I'd like to apologize for doubting the Lakers with Kobe's injury but the 3-peat is still intact and within our grasp.

Stat Guru

NBA Playoff Predictions - Eastern Conference, Round 2

Surprisingly, the first round had quite a few unexpected upsets. Memphis' defeat over San Antonio, as well as Atlanta playing very tough against Orlando changed the entire shape of the NBA Finals. I have to apologize for my Five on Memphis previously, Z-Bo stepped up incredibly for his team and they are now a team to look out for. Let's continue with the picks for round 2

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

• Pick: Chicago Bulls
• Five: Rose stays strong for Bulls
• Series Score: 4-2

2. Miami Heat vs. 3. Boston Celtics

• Pick: Boston Celtics
• Five: Team effort takes down individuals
• Series Score: 4-3

Both match-ups will be highly contested and fans are in for a great Eastern Conference Semi-Final. Right from the get go, look all 4 teams to assert themselves in the series but resiliency will prove key. Enjoy!

Stat Guru

Drive to the Finals Picks - May 1, 2011

Stat Guru:
Must - Rajon Rondo

• Rondo will be up against no competition on the defensive end as the Heat don't have any stunning point guards. Look for Rondo to carve up the Heat defense in each game with Game 1 as the statement for the series. Rondo has great triple-double potential as one of the few guards who crashes both the offensive and defensive glass. For Boston to win this series, the Big 3 will need their young guard every step of the way.

Bust - Kevin Durant

• In steps Tony Allen, fresh off of their win over the Spurs and looking to take down another Western Conference giant. I may have been wrong about the Spurs-Grizzlies series but one thing is for sure, Kevin Durant will struggle to take over games like he's known to do. Allen will pressure Durant for the full 48 minutes and force him into tough shots, which will give Memphis some hope in this series. Don't choose Durant unless you have great confidence in his game or if the Thunder are down.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Marc Gasol

• When you're entering a new series, it is easy to play a balanced game where everyone gets lots of looks. It isn't until a team is down in the series *cough*Memphis*cough* that the load becomes shouldered by the best player *cough*Zach Randolph*cough* - and thus takes away the stats from the other offensive threats on the team (Gasol, Conley). And in the event that I am wrong - and Memphis takes over the series - the best player is still in tact.

Bust - LeBron James

• A very tight series that is hard to predict at this point in time.  I don't usually like to use superstars in Game 1s if I'm not at least 90% confident in the series outcome, and this series looks 50/50 to me at this point in time.  Additionally, I have a hunch that the Heat will win this series, so am going to leave the Big 3 alone until they are down in the series.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 29, 2011

Stat Guru:
Must - Tony Parker

Last game proved the Spurs should never be counted out of this series. Parker took over the overtime period, putting his team on his back and bringing the series to 3-2. Although the game is in Memphis, I expect Parker to continue his stellar play as he continues to get better and force Game 7 in San Antonio. The number 1 seed still lives!

Bust - Mike Conley

I've been stunned by Conley's play in this series. Memphis still has an opportunity to close out tonight but Memphis has been led by their bigs and role players such as Sam Young and Darrell Arthur. Unless there is some drastic change overnight, Conley will continue to put up mediocre numbers with Game 6 looking much the same.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Manu Ginobili

• He lit it up last game, and I expect him to do the same tonight. There is not much strategy at this point in a round one game tonight, so pick the best player available who may be knocked out tonight. I've used Parker and Timmy D, so Manu is my must tonight. Whoever your best Spur player remaining is should also be your must.

Bust - Zach Randolph

• Zbo will have a great game, but I predict that the series ends tonight. If the Spurs do win, I will 100% be using Zbo for Game 7. There is not much else to say. Go Grizz!

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 28, 2011

The Intuition Statistician

Must - Andre Miller

• Tonight I expect big numbers out of Miller. He is a veteran point guard, facing elimination with home court advantage. My intuition says the blazers will win a close one tonight and then lose in game 7. Miller and Aldridge have been fairly consistent so far, so either one of these two players would be a good pick for tonight. Their fight to avoid elimination should result in big PRA numbers.
  
  
  

Bust - Trevor Ariza

• Sorry NBA.com experts, I am not really feeling this pick tonight. For those of you who saw Game 5, you saw vintage Kobe. Kobe was attacking and dunking on the Hornets big men with a vengeance. I think Kobe's new attitude will transfer into his teams performance tonight. Sparked by Kobe, I think the Lakers are going to show what they are capable of tonight. I don't think Ariza will be able to handle what the Lakers are going to bring to New Orleans tonight.

Stat Guru

Must - Jason Richardson

Yet again I feel J-Rich has been a player in this series flying under the radar. It seems the Hawks still haven't notice that the Magic are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league and Richardson has been one of the main contributors after the blockbuster deal with Phoenix. With the Magic facing elimination, Richardson will get all the minutes he can handle and I expect Van Gundy to give him the green light for this game. Don't be discouraged as he will play through his injury.

Bust - Carl Landry


Although Landry has been dominating Pau with his speed and quickness, his ability to shut down in an instant was proved in Game 5. Pau Gasol returned to his usual double-double role and the Lakers rotated well to prevent Landry's penetration. The Hornets seem to rely on players like Aaron Gray and Jason Smith off the bench to keep them in games and look for Monty to get these guys going as the bench has kept New Orleans close in this series. My Laker bias is telling me this is it for the Hornets run, and Kobe posterizing Landry in Game 5 isn't my only reason.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Jamal Crawford

• I don't usually like taking players from teams leading their series, but felt like I had to make an exception here. Crawford has been a disappointment at best this year, and I didn't expect him to be a factor at the start of the series. But he seems to have found his groove against the Magic, and has arguably been the Hawks best player in this series . Based on his inconsistency this year, it's hard to predict how he will perform against the Bulls if ATL moves beyond the first round. This may be his best round, so I want to use him while he still looks like a strong option for PRAs.

Bust - Trevor Ariza

• Okay, I'll admit that Ariza's PRA game has been pretty impressive this series (by Ariza's standards). This bust is more about me playing devil's advocate, than me doubting his performance tonight. This will be CP3's night to shine once again, and I don't expect the PRA of any other Hornet to come remotely close to his.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Western Conference Semifinals

I was surprised to see that there were no big upsets in the first round of this year's playoffs - the NHL playoffs have been notorious for them lately (Flyers & Habs 2010, Hurricanes & Ducks 2009).  Everyone loves to cheer for an underdog, and it was too bad that none of the Habs, Sabres or Hawks pulled through.  Yep, upsets are what make the NHL playoffs so great. "But Wes, why are you talking about upsets when there haven't been any?"

...

Just 'cauuuse...

1. Vancouver Canucks vs. 5. Nashville Predators

• Pick: Nashville Predators in 6
• Five: Elite team just found confidence

2. San Jose Sharks vs. 3. Detroit Red Wings

• Pick: San Jose Sharks in 6
• Five: Thornton, Marleau become playoff heroes

Check out first round predictions @ http://alloutfantasy.blogspot.com/2011/04/nhl-playoff-predictions-western.html

NHL Playoff Predictions - Eastern Conference Semifinals

Okay, so I went 5 for 8 in the first round - but only had one really poor pick in the Coyotes (I still don't know what happened there).  My PIT & MTL picks were very tight as well, and I am still bitter about the Habs loss. Ah well - that's playoff hockey! I am still sticking with a Washington - San Jose final at this point, but can now see the Cup going to either team.  Fingers still crossed for the Sharks.  Time for Round 2...

1. Washington Capitals vs. 5. Tampa Bay Lightning

• Pick: Washington Capitals in 6
• Five: Caps thriving in defensive-minded system

2. Philadelphia Flyers vs. 3. Boston Bruins

• Pick Philadelphia Flyers in 5
• Five: Bruins' anemic powerplay becomes downfall

Maybe I am just biased against the Bruins because I hate them so much and am still mad that they knocked out the Habs (thereby ending my pool team). But seriously, the Flyers beat a very tough team in the Sabres, and I think the Bruins are a walk in the park by comparison.

P.S. My buddy Denis has sent me over his predictions as well. I am posting his round 1 recap and predictions under comments (so you can differentiate who is who). To see both our first round Eastern predictions, check out http://alloutfantasy.blogspot.com/2011/04/nhl-playoff-predictions-eastern.html

Enjoy!

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 27, 2011

The Intuition Statistician
Must - Manu Ginobili

• As the Spurs return to San Antonio they are playing to avoid a first round up set. Manu should have the ball in his hands quite a bit tonight and put up big numbers. Not taking Manu tonight would be a big gamble.

Bust - Ty Lawson

• None of the Denver players have been able to put up high PRA consistently in playoffs. Although Lawson played well last game, it seems as though Denver's roster takes turns putting up big numbers. With no super star, any player from Denver would be a gamble tonight. With the spurs facing elimination tonight, look to pick one of their more consistent players.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Tim Duncan

• Time to hit the panic button in San Antonio. The Spurs are going to be hard-pressed to win three in a row, so use all of Pop's players while you can.  I've already used Parker so I am going with Tim Duncan tonight. He has had a few big PRA nights against the Grizz, as well as a few poor ones.  But I expect Timmy D to come out huge tonight, knowing that he will do all he can to keep the Spurs alive.

Bust - Andre Iguodala

• This series is over tonight, and I'm not even sure it's going to be close.  I am predicting a low-scoring game that will be over by the end of the third.  The Heat are probably eager to avenge their loss and I expect them to be relentless on an inexperienced Sixers roster. I figure the Heat defenders will stick to Iggy like glue, leaving him little room for gathering PRA.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 26, 2011

The Intuition Statistician
Must - Dwight Howard

• If you haven't picked Howard yet, this is a no brainer. He is averaging one of the highest RPA stat lines in the playoffs so far. If Orlando looses tonight then you may have lost your chance on some big numbers. Not picking Dwight would be a huge gamble, taken probably only by loyal Magic fans.

Bust - Joe Johnson

• For some reason Johnson is a hot pick tonight. This is one of the worst picks you could make unless you are convinced the Magic is going to rally for a comeback. With two teams facing potential elimination tonight, pick the best player from one of the losing teams.

Stat Guru:

Must - Dwight Howard

I didn't get to change this myself but Dwight Howard is the most obvious pick of the night. I know much of you probably waited for this moment to lock him up and with the Magic in huge trouble it is absolutely essential you pick him. Simple as that.

Bust - Kobe Bryant

I never thought I'd say this, but the Lakers actually look like they are in some trouble. Kobe will obviously be a trooper through his injury but his effectiveness will remain in question. I don't doubt they will win tonight but I have a hunch Kobe will look to divert to his team in this one. The Lakers have been very hush about the severe sprain Bryant received at the end of Game 4 which has to leave doubts in the minds of fans. Just in case, save this one until Game 6 if the Lakers do lose this game.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Dwight Howard

• How can you not take Dwight at this point, if you haven't already? Nobody expected theMagic to be in this position against the Hawks, and the way they have played, this looks like it could be their last game of the season. Playing for their playoff lives, this is the perfect game to pick the league's most talented center, who is playing in front of his home crowd. A 30-20 game actually seems probable for tonight.

Bust - Chris Paul

• With the huge win at home in Game 4, Chris Paul and the Hornets are safe for another night. Once again, this pick isn't about CP3 having poor numbers - its about saving your best players until you need them. If you haven't used CP3 at this point, save him until the Lakers win their third game (if they even do?!).

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 25, 2011

The Intuition Statistician
Must - Nene Hilario

• Tonight could very well be the end of Denver's season. Nene has been the only player on his team putting up consistent PRA numbers each night. Because Denver does not have any superstars, any other player chosen tonight would be a gamble.The OKC/Denver match up is the only one potentially ending tonight, so it may be your last chance to use Nene.

Bust - Manu Ginobili

• I know it may seem like a bold statement putting Manu as a bust when his team is down 2-1 playing in Memphis tonight, but be patient. The spurs had the best record in the West for a reason. I do expect big numbers from Manu tonight, but I still believe the Spurs will take this series. With so many options to pick from in the first round of playoffs, I am firm believer in saving superstars until later rounds. However, if the Spurs do lose tonight I will be taking Manu in Game 5 for sure.

Stat Guru

Must - Ty Lawson

After the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Nuggets have lacked one true star to takeover his duties. With Ty Lawson and newly acquired Raymond Felton taking over Chauncey's guard role, Coach Karl has seen both emerge at different times. Now its come down to Game 4 and with Lawson still in the starting lineup, I expect a statement game from him to prove his worth. Guards such as J.R. Smith and Aaron Afflalo still see up and down minutes as Karl goes with the 2 guard system, but Lawson still remains the go to option for him. Lawson is lightening quick and his outside game is very underrated. He could easily put up a 30+ PRA tonight.

Bust - Tony Allen

Allen has had his positive spark put out all series by the Spurs. He has settled back into his role as a defensive stopper rather than one of the scoring options for this team. I expect another hard fought battle between Allen and Ginobili all game with Tony's offensive game being thrown out the window once again. It's disappointing because he does have the ability to be a threat which the Grizzlies need to win this series.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Nene Hilario

• It is not so much that Nene is a "must", but that everyone else is a "bust" tonight. To me, the SAN-MEM and DAL-POR series can still go either way, whereas the OKC-DEN series is just waiting for the ink to dry. Nene is the most consistent player on a team that is facing elimination tonight, and so he seems to be the best option available. Every other player on Denver is a coin flip for a solid PRA, and I am still not ready to gamble again - especially on a Nugget (still bitter about Danilo).

Bust - Dirk Nowitzki

• Until Dallas loses at home, there is no reason to hit the panic button on the Mavs. Dallas doesn't need to win in Portland to move on yet - but they have the best road record in the league in case they have to. As I've said before, Dirk is the only worthwhile look on Dallas, so you are better off saving him until the Mavs face elimination.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 24, 2011

The Intuition Statistician

Must - Amar'e Stoudemire

• With two teams potentially swept and out of the playoffs today, look to pick the best player you have available between either the 76ers or the Knicks. Stoudemire or Carmelo averaged the highest RPA throughout the regular season for both teams. Therefore either one of these guys are a solid pick for tonight.

Bust - Dwight Howard

• Save Howard! Although the Magic are down 2-1, there are two teams that could be eliminated today. If the Hawks win tonight, then Howard is a for sure pick in Game 5. It's too early to count the Magic out. Use any super stars from either the Knicks or 76ers. Howard has been a monster in all three games and it seems like he's not going to slow down. Having him available in further rounds could allow you to make a huge jump in your playoff league.

Stat Guru:

Must - Josh Smith

J Smoove has been flying under the radar for the Hawks in the playoffs. I don't know about you, but I actually forgot about his presence on the court.(not sure how I could) He's been averaging 27+ PRA for the game as a versatile forward. Apart from his defensive ability, Smith can shoot, slash to the basket and take players off the dribble. Atlanta will look to defend home court and I expect Smith to be a huge factor in Game 4.



Bust - Chris Paul

Well would you look at that, my Lakers have finally picked up the slack and have shut down the Hornets primary option. Without David West, the Hornets have a lot of holes in their offense, looking to players like Trevor Ariza and Carl Landry for any sort of scoring outside Paul. Now that the Lakers have keyed in on Paul and with his wrist injury suffered in Game 3, his impact will take a huge hit in this game. Paul is still averaging 20 points and 10 assists for the series, but I expect to see those numbers dwindle tonight.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:
Must - Chris Paul
The Danilo experiment didn't pan out so I'm going with a safe pick tonight.  If the Hornets stand any chance at staying in this series, they have to win tonight. More importantly, CP3 is going to have to regain the magic he had from Game 1 and put up big numbers across the board.  I considered Jrue for this pick, but don't want to be forced between taking one of Dwight or CP3 if they both face elimination on Tuesday.

Bust - Jrue Holiday

As I stated above, superstars are beginning to face elimination at this point in Round 1, and I would regret not using these fantasy monsters. I do expect the Sixers to come out strong and maybe even steal a game, but I don't expect Jrue to have huge numbers, with the team relying on Iggy and Brand this game. Consider Jrue a bust from here onward.

Drive to the Finals Picks - April 23, 2011

Intuition Statistician

Must - Lamarcus Aldridge

• Aldridge is a solid pick for today's match ups. He has been leading the Blazers in RPA and they need a big game out of him tonight as they look to tie the series up. I feel that Dallas will win this series and therefore Portland players should be taken.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• I am not a big fan of Gasol for tonight. Gasol and Zack Randolph rarely share large RPA nights and after Randolph's sub par performance from last game, Randolph should be taking all the RPA's tonight. Furthermore, Gasol has been too inconsistent this entire year. Look for a more consistent player tonight, there are lots available.

Stat Guru

Must - Brandon Roy

I think this pick will stir some of the critics. Roy has gone from once an NBA all-star to a role player for the Blazers. After scoring just 2 points in the first 2 games of the series, Roy scored in double figures in Game 3 and is now turning heads on how great the Blazers could be. I expect Roy to continue his stellar play in the Rose Garden tonight and for the Blazers to lock up the series 2-2.

Bust - Luol Deng

After bringing over Boozer, little was said about the production of Luol Deng as the 2nd scoring option in Chicago. Over the course of the season he has remained consistent but his PRA has been on a decline with the emergence of Rose and the standstill defence the Bulls run. Don't expect much from Luol this game, especially with Indiana looking to protect their home court advantage in Game 4.

Fantasy Fresh Wes:

Must - Danilo Gallinari

• Here is my first huge gamble of the Drive to the Finals. Danilo has been less than spectacular these playoffs, averaging only 17.5 PRA over the first two games. But for the Nuggets to beat the Thunder, they need Danilo to be driving constantly and shooting lights out. He is most effective when he is getting looks, and I expect him to be getting lots of them tonight. Here's hoping that the Colorado air gets the best of him now that he is back at home.

Bust - Marc Gasol

• Despite his favourable match ups against the Spurs' centres and a surprising 33.5 PRA over the first two games - this is a very small sample size and Marc has been the most consistently inconsistent player during the regular season. This inconsistency combined with a terrible game from Zbo last game (who is now looking for redemption) makes me believe his numbers will drop significantly tonight.